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What is a reasonably conservative real % yield on investment capital to use for retirement planning purposes? |
Real % yield is net of inflation. So a 5% total yield with 3% inflation would be a 2% real % yield. With judicious investments in equities, you should expect long term returns of 8% conservatively. That is based on historical trends. Many good mutual funds have returned better than that. Some as much as 16% for long periods of time. But I doubt that in the future that will be the case unless one looks to overseas and developing markets. Some of those however can hardly be considered conservative. A mixed portfolio of 30-40% debt and 60-70% equities is considered more conservative than one of 100% equities. Interestingly enough, studies have shown that such a portfolio will outperform an all equities portfolio over a long period of time with reduced risk. A 2% "Real" would be a reasonably conservative yield assumption for assets "during" (after you have actually retired) retirement. From bank deposits you can expect 5.5% gross, subject to tax at 20% and inflation 2.5% The average annual rate of inflation since 1914 has been 3.43%. A lot of research has been done on average annual returns on assets and one of the most famous was a paper written by Ibbotson. His calculations for average annual returns (not inflation adjusted) for approximately the past 75 years was 3.8% annual return for t-bills, 5.5% for long term bonds, 11.2% for large company stocks and 12.4% for small cap stocks. So if you average a portfolio of 80% stocks (50% large cap 50% small cap) and 20% bonds and consider inflation to average the historical average of 3.43% for the duration of your retirment plan, being somewhat conservative I would consider a yield of 6.5% to 7.5% to be reasonable. I use 8% on all my calculations That's the 10-11% return adjusted by 2-3% inflation. |
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