Today's stock market so far?

Doesn't the sharp rise of the stock market today, within opening minutes today, after a precipitous decline yesterday, decisively demonstrate that it's not based on any rational factors? Isn't all the explanations and prognostications by the so-called "experts" nothing more than blowing steam? Can anyone claim to know more about how the market's going to perform than anyone else (i.e. the manager of a huge Fidelity Fund compared to a dart throwing monkey)?

Kathryn: I think what you say makes alot of sense, I'm just not sure why we need "experts" to do this for us and take a hefty fee for doing so.

Looking at the market as whole on any given day is akin to a dart throwing monkey. BUT, the day traders have been chased out of the market for some time now. Most investors should have a long term goal (at least five years and preferably ten or twenty) and pick individual stocks after analyzing the particular company's strengths, weaknesses, and forward progress. They should have a mix of stocks in various sectors. And with dollar cost averaging, it really doesn't matter what a stock does on any given day as long as the individual trend is up. If it is not, then "Hasta la vista!"

On a day-to-day basis the stock market is influenced by moods and emotions. That's why it can swing wildly in one direction or another.

With enough research of a company and understanding of the market, it is possible to make reasonable predictions of long-term performance. But even then, you could be wrong.

Mutual fund managers, like most intelligence investors, aren't focused on daily fluctuations. They're looking for long-term returns.

the market is just a joke right now.. because of recession fear, people are not thinking, something good happen, buy buy buy, something they don't like, sell sell sell..

Your judgment on stock market inefficiencies is correct for the short-term. Over the short term the stock market appears to be driven by emotions, mass-psychology, and fear.

However, over the long-term the stock market does look a whole lot more rational. It really is an accurate reflection of business trends. The problem is that day-by-day the stock pickers are trying to look six-months into the future. Not easy!