What are the true predictors of a fund's future performance?

I've read article after after article detailing that you can't look at a fund's history and know how it will fare in relation to other funds in its class. I even read an article that stated the top quartile of funds were 'only' 60% likely to fare above average in the 10 years following the 10 years of the survey, and used it as proof that fund performance doesn't correlate to history. (Anyone with an ounce of analytical common sense knows that something that's 40% more likely in correlation with a predictor bloody well is correlated).

Okay. So. Stipulating that I don't expect a 'top fund repeats being a top fund' scenario. Stipulating that fund performance is tied to skill factors in management, random factors in market and the push upwards or downwards of market forces, is there a statistically valid rule of correlation between a fund's performance over a set number years and its its likelihood to perform above average? Note the key term above average.

You're breaking my balls here Chiky. C'mon, work with me. If performance is truly random, then the only (as opposed to simply very important) consideration is fund fees. But if that were true, Guido operating out of the back of a truck for a flat $40 and throwing darts to make his selection would be the best fund available. Quality of management is paramount. If you define management quality as correlation to above average performance beyond what can be explained by market forces and randomness. I would bet my next check that it is possible to simply determine more often than not on a month by month basis whether an optimally selected fund is going to land in the top 2 quartiles.

No. Really, you can apply all the math and statistic and actuarial analysis you want. Nobody has that crystal ball, and in fact everyone that has ever invested anything in any sort of fund or otherwise is looking for exactly the information you're "fishing" for here. That disclaimer is put there for a reason. Because someone, somewhere is going to say (if there was no disclaimer) "but you said you got this much and that much in this and that year". The best fund this year can be the biggest failure next year. The only real correlation is that of a longer term, if you even want to call it that. If you invest in a large cap fund, and keep it for 40 years, you can probably bet you're going to have made money on that investment. Buy and hold and asset allocation. Those are the indicators, really.