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Why is Goldman Sach (GS) traded at such a low price? |
it has very small exposure to subprime mess, it's earning growth is 30% and right now it's traded at only p/e 7.7 when other investment banks are traded at p/e 15-18, and it's current PEG is only 0.6 they did!? Considering the state of the financial sector, GS isn't really doing that bad. Compare them to the other big names on a percentage basis. GS is about 25% off it's 52 week high. MER, MS, BSC, C are all over 50% off their 52 week highs. Because they invested millions in junk mortgage derivatives and that money is gone forever. Goldman does have sub prime exposure, but the big reason for the drop is the sector its in. Financials are not the place to be right now. It may be a good long term investment though. I think your analysis is good but there are a couple of headline factors that come in play. 1st they are down like any other financials and those will be out of favor in 2008 (maybe 2009) regardless of their subprime exposure. 2nd GS does not have a strong retail banking or retail brokerage to sustain a down turn. 3rd the economy is moving into a recession which means less M&A and investment banking activities. 4th Merrill Lynch might start stealing GS executives and employees. I think there are just too much head winds against them and any financial. Nobody trust financials anymore (i.e. what else are they hiding, how about Asset Back securities exposure, and so on). If you think long you could go for GS. Because many shareholders are not happy with GS's decision to cover those common and very expensive sex changes obviously! I know a respected analyst who suspects that most of these investment banks are worthless right now due to massive problems related to subprime mortgages and derivatives. |
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