What factors an investor take into account when estimating future net dividend?

what are the factors an investor take into account when estimating future net dividend of a company ?

I've done investment banking and currently co-manage a small mutual fund. We generally look at past dividend trends over 10 years and estimate growth rates. If we see differing trends, we'll take 50% of the past 3 year trend, 30% of the past 5 year trend, and 20% of the past 10 year trend.

Also, it is very important to keep up on company news and check out their latest quarterly and annual reports (10-K's and 10-Q's), as well as the latest few investor conference calls. You can glean a lot of information from these sources and companies will often tell investors plans for future increases in dividends.

On a final note, many stable companies will begin to issue and/or increase their dividends as the company becomes larger and enters maturity stages.

Good luck to you!

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